CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-09-20T18:30:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Sep 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was as moderate levels. Region 2415 (S18W62,
Eao/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2/2n flare
at 20/1803 UTC.  Associated with the flare were a Type II radio sweep
(1304 km/s), a 320 sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) first
observed off the SW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 20/1824 UTC.  This
CME is a combination of a slower CME to the north (appears to be a limb
event in SDO/AIA 171 imagery) with the much faster (est. speed 825 km/s)
CME associated with the M2 flare just to its south.  WSA/ENLIL modeling
of the event showed the bulk of the ejecta to the SW of the Sun-Earth
line.  However, a rise in the lower energy protons in the ACE/EPAM
instrument suggests a possible shock enhancement by late on 22 Sep to
early on 23 Sep.

Other activity included a C8/Sn flare at 21/0518 UTC from Region 2420
(N10E71, Ekc/beta-gamma) with an associated 140 sfu Tenflare and a non
Earth-directed CME.

Slight decay was observed in the smaller intermediate and trailing spots
in Region 2415.  Slight growth was observed in the leader and trailing
spots of Region 2420.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares over the forecast period (21-23 Sep). 
The most likely regions to produce M-class activity are Regions 2415 and
2420.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate
levels with a peak flux of 383 pfu at 20/1750 UTC.  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux saw a minor enhancement (below S1-Minor) associated with
the 20/1803 UTC flare that peaked at 3 pfu at 20/2045 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (21 Sep) with high levels
possible on days two and three (22-23 Sep) due to a combination of
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and CME influences.  There is a
slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1
(Minor) levels for days one and two (21-22 Sep).  As Region 2415 rotates
off the limb on day three (23 Sep), the slight chance for S1 (Minor)
conditions will decrease.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated residual CME activity transitioning into
a positive polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed was variable between 442
km/s to 660 km/s with total field ranging from 4 nT to 10 nT.  The Bz
component was mostly southward early in the period near -6 nT, but
became variable between -4 nT and +7 nT by mid period.  Phi angle was
oriented in a predominantly positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be enhanced under CH
HSS influence for day one (21 Sep).  As day two (22 Sep) approaches,
solar winds are expected to slowly decline towards background levels. 
There is a possibility of a shock enhancement by late on 22 Sep through
early on 23 Sep from the 20 Sep CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due
to residual CME effects followed by CH HSS activity.  Minor storming was
observed during the 20/1500-1800 period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
the forecast period (21-23 Sep) due to CH HSS effects and a possible
shock enhancement late on 22 Sep to early on 23 Sep from the 20 Sep CME.

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